Long-Range: As we progress into the mid/later part of your workweek, things become stormier and much warmer as the gulf of mexico becomes open for business and sends a significant amount of moisture and instability into The Natural State. As of this morning's outlook, The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has issued a 15% risk for severe weather for central and southern AR for the day on Thursday. A storm system will take shape just east of the rocky mountains and swing a pacific cold front/dryline through the natural state during the afternoon hours on Thursday. Since this will be occuring the heating of the day, instability values could be in the range of 1500 to 2500 j/kg which is more than enough for severe thunderstorms. At this time, a limiting factor could be that the wind profiles does not look overly impressive given what we've seen so far this year however with the instability forecast to be moderate/high, it won't take much shear to get things started. The main threats at this time are Hail, Wind and the potential of isolated tornadoes. As we progress into next weekend....A potent storm system looks to set the stage for more severe thunderstorms as we move towards the Sunday timeframe and if current trends were to continue, we could very well see a another risk area out for next weekend.
~Senior Forecaster Cameron