Period begins with a cold front currently moving out of the state and drier air working into the state. A few showers were noted overrunning the cool air at the surface. These should die off overnight. Drier air will slowly make its way to southern arkansas as well by Thursday morning. Dew points will be dropping into the 40s and 50s and low temps will respond likewise with a few upper 40s possible in the coldest areas of northern Arkansas. Thursday will feel very fallish with 70s for highs and 50s for lows. Return flow will setup again by Friday as temps warm back to near normal readings. Dry weather expected through the period.
Period will begin with a large trough to our north and a building ridge from the southwest to the southeast U.S. with a zonal pattern setting up. What this means for us is a warming trend and also increased chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. A new deep low pressure trough is expected to get established in the southwest over the weekend. However, with the stout southeast ridge in place, this low will not move much if at all.
The result will be Arkansas sitting in between these two features. This will setup an active pattern across the state as the trough starts to approach the state. This will setup a deformation zone (stretching of the atmosphere) Have only gone with isolated to low end chance pops to account for the deformation zone as the exact placement of this feature is yet to be determined. Rain chances could go up or down depending on latter analysis.
Temps will be generally above average through the period with the ridge entrenched over the region. There are signs of a more significant cool down just beyond this period, but we will watch this for now.