Period begins with a cold front in the plains barreling its way south. Ahead of it, a very warm and rich environment. This will help to spark off showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front overnight and early Wednesday as the front passes through the state. Central and southern Arkansas have the best shot to see rainfall from the front and this is where I have put the highest pops to cover this potential. Behind the front, much drier air will be seen with dew points reaching the upper 40s to mid 50s. That is very dry air for Arkansas in late September and we will take it. Nighttime lows will respond accordingly with the coolest night since May seen across much of the state. Highs will generally be in the 70s. By Friday, a warming trend will begin as the flow changes to out of the southwest. This will bring a gradual increase in moisture as well.
Period begins with a front to our south, one to our north and a ridge to the southeast. Early in the period, the front to the north will drop south increasing our chances for showers and thunderstorms. Have only gone with low end pops, as it will take some time to erode drier air in the atmosphere but a few showers will be seen. This front is not very strong so no temperature change is expected. Once again, severe weather is not expected.
Late in the period, the aforementioned ridge will begin to reestablish itself over the southeastern U.S.. This will leave us on the western periphery of the high. The result will be a southwest flow aloft which will help to bring an increase in moisture and temperatures. Chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day.
Just beyond the period, some guidance is showing a tropical system affecting the desert southwest. A piece of energy could break off of this and head our way within the southwest flow, but being beyond the 7 day period we will wait and see how this comes to fruition.