Saturday through Monday will be more of the same as high pressure dominates the region. NW flow aloft will transition to a zonal flow leading to warm and dry weather throughout the state. A shortwave will move through the state on Sunday bringing a slight chance of showers during the afternoon and evening. More of the same on Monday. While temps will be in the 90s humidity levels will creep back up and bring heat index values close to advisory criteria over the weekend and early next week.
Tuesday through Friday will feature much of the same weather pattern early on. High pressure dominating with hot and humid days and warm and muggy nights. A stationary front will remain to the north of the state in Missouri through mid-week before sagging south to the northern border of Arkansas by Thursday. No severe weather expected, just your typical summer time showers and thunderstorms that will be diurnally driven in nature. Watching the end of the period closely for major forecast implications. Some signals are pointing towards a more widespread rainfall event late in the period with a front to the north and a tropical disturbance developing in the Gulf of Mexico and tracking near the state between the ridge in the Plains and the trough to the east. Still very early in the game but this does look very similar to a Barry setup once again minus the excessive rain but we will watch it very closely. Stay tuned as the forecast is likely to change as we head towards next weekend.
~Chief Forecaster Derek