Very typical August pattern persisting across the region. Front that moved through on Tuesday has brought a northwest wind flow aloft and thus brought a spell of somewhat drier air to the natural state. The ridge that baked us early in the week is situated to the west of the state over the southern plains and Rockies, allowing for a northwest wind flow. This will remain the case again on Thursday with humidity values remain more reminiscent of August and not the oppressive heat we saw early in the week. Ridge will flatten out on Friday with the flow becoming more zonal. As such southerly surface flow will return to the state and temps will respond accordingly heading into the weekend. Heat index values will creep up above 100 again as well but should remain below advisory criteria. With the increased moisture levels, we could see a few isolated showers or thunderstorms Saturday afternoon, but otherwise hot and dry weather will be seen.
Sunday through Wednesday will feature more of the same with a slightly better chance for rainfall. Zonal flow will continue early in the period will allow for southerly flow at the surface. This will keep moisture levels high as we start the last half of the weekend. Given the southerly flow and higher moisture content, would not be surprised to see a slight uptick in rain chances on Sunday given Arkansas on the eastern periphery of the ridge and a front to our north in MIssouri. Have increased rain chances slightly to account for this feature. Upper ridge will build in the Southwest putting Arkansas back into northwest flow aloft. This will keep rain chances in the forecast as weak disturbances could move around the high helping to ignite showers and thunderstorms during the heat of the day. Nothing severe is expected and temps will remain close to seasonal norms for mid to late August.
~Chief Forecaster Derek