Well are you ready for a wild ride? I have one for you. We start over the weekend as high pressure builds in over the over northern Gulf Coast. This will return southerly flow to the state and as a result bring temperatures way up. In fact, by Sunday we could be up to 10 degrees ABOVE seasonal averages. Some will thing spring has sprung. Good thing with high pressure in control, no rain will be seen. Sunny days and clear nights statewide. A weak cold front will move through Sunday but only a wind shift will be seen. This will allow temps to cool off some Sunday night and Monday with 60s and 70s versus the near 80 degree readings on Sunday.
Period will begin in between weather systems. Overall synoptic pattern will remain highly amplified early in the period. High pressure will be shifting west and a strong cold front will be moving down the plains. Tuesday during the day will be dry and warm as southerly winds bring clouds and moisture to the state. Humidity will increase some as well ahead of the front. By Tuesday night, showers and isolated thunderstorms will be seen across parts of the state. On Halloween, the cold front will move through the state. Very strong system is in play with temps falling behind the front. In fact, northern Arkansas could meet their highs early in the day with Central and south later in the early afternoon. The setup is indeed dynamic but questionable as well. The past several deterministic runs have advertised the potential for severe weather Halloween, especially across the southeastern parts of the state. One limiting factor would be the instability, especially if we see rainfall ahead of the system. Also timing of the cold front is in play as it will be moving very fast and could undercut the thunderstorms. Southeast winds at the surface and northwest winds aloft on the latest guidance does indicate shear in place. THis coupled with a 500mb jet streak showing up does raise an eyebrow. It is to early to know exactly what threats will play out and where but given that we have run to run consistency from both the medium range models AND the atmospheric setup is somewhat supportive of at least strong thunderstorms, have added this to the forecast. Have opted to leave severe wording out for now and will wait and see how everything plays out. Regardless a wet and stormy Halloween does look like a good possibility.
Behind the front, strati form rain looks to be seen overnight and during the T&T times along with falling temps so the kids would need to dress accordingly. As we round out the period, we will see a gradual decrease in rainfall as well as temps. Canadian high pressure looks to build in just beyond the period with next weekend looking MUCH COLDER compared to this one. Guidance is consistent in bringing most if not all of the state our first hard freeze of the season next weekend. Some guidance has advertised 20s for lows and 40s to low 50s for highs. I do not buy that cold but do feel that upper 20s to low 30s are a good bet for lows with upper 40s to low 50s for highs. However, to get that cold, the cold the guidance is wanting to bring, you would need a deepening snow pack up north, and it looks like that will happen this week. So this will definitely need to be watched. Went below guidance for Friday next week and even then may still be to warm. Will leave freeze wording out for now and watch to see how things play out but I do expect to see a freeze somewhere in the state next weekend, which is right on time.
We will have updates on both Halloween and the freeze potential in various blogs over the weekend and next week as additional guidance and better views of the atmospheric pattern is seen.