Period begins with departing upper level system to our east and ridging building to our west. Upper level system will slowly pull away through Friday with winds increasing as it does up to 20 mph in the state. Clouds will remain in place though as residual moisture is slow to dry out. High pressure will build in behind a cold front over the weekend, with sunny days and clear nights. Frontal passage does look dry so only a windshift will be noted with it during the day. Highs will be into the 70s over the weekend as southwest winds bring warm air to the state.
Period will begin with NW flow setting backup across the state behind the frontal passage. Dry weather will be seen on Monday but temps will be nearly 10 degrees cooler than on Sunday. We will remain dry through Tuesday as high pressure remains in control. A warming trend will be seen as well ahead of our next frontal system, with 70s seen across much of the state. Wednesday (Halloween Day) guidance has struggled with lately in regards to the frontal passage. Euro and GFS are in much better agreement with the timing of the front on Halloween during the day and into the evening hours. Rainfall does look to be likely as the front moves through with post frontal rain shield possible as well, as moisture overruns colder air filtering in. Have added thunderstorm wording to central and south Arkansas, as this is where the warmer air and greater instability (if you can call it great) will be. As of right now the severe threat does look low, however guidance is hinting at falling temps behind eh front with at least some shear present, so strong to possibly severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out yet, especially with colder air filtering in both at the surface and aloft. By the evening, the front does look to have passed much of the state with only rainfall remaining for the kiddos events Halloween evening. May still have a few left over thunderstorms down south. Timing can and will change. Pattern does favor a fast moving system with the highly amplified atmosphere above us, so I don't expect any flooding issues and given the setup, this could be out by sunset. Stay tuned to future updates as we get closer to Halloween 2018.
Temps will be near to just below average through the period.