Period begins with a weak cold front moving through the state this evening. This will clear rain out over the south tonight and bring drier air for Thursday and slightly cooler temps. Thursday will be partly cloudy to mostly sunny, however clouds and rainfall will increase again by late Thursday night as an upper low opens up into an open wave and pushes across the state. Friday will see rain and pretty high coverage at that but amounts will remain light as it will be falling into a somewhat dry air mass. Strong vort max over the Great Lakes will drive a cold front through the state Friday night and Saturday helping to dry things out over the state. Rain could linger early Saturday morning south but will clear out by mid morning. Saturday will be the warmest day of the period with abundant sunshine ahead of the surface high pressure settling into the region. By Saturday night, temps will plummet once again bottoming out in the 30s to low 40s. There are some indications that the north could see its first frost and colder areas get close to freezing. Lows are about 35-37 for Saturday night but that my be generous especially in the typically colder spots. If we get light winds to no wind, then we will see our first frost of the season. If winds stay up then we will avoid it once again. Either way, high pressure will set up Northwest flow heading into the extended period, leaving us cool and dry.
No substantial changes to the long term with this update. HIgh pressure will remain firmly in control of our weather with sunny days and cool, crisp nights as northwest flow keeps us in a fall pattern. Sunday night under clear skies, and the coldest day of the period, we could see widespread frost. Some guidance has lows 33-35, however I kept temps up at this time to account for the latent heat in the ground from the recent warm air in September. That is slowly fading away with each cool night. Opted to stay 36-38 for the north with 37-40 for Central sections Sunday night. This could be generous but feel like this is the best approach. Regardless with calm winds and a clear sky, we should see at least patchy frost on Monday morning. The aforementioned front will keep us cool on Monday as well but a slow warming trend will commence through mid-week. Guidance is all over the place today regarding the end of the period, but there does look to be yet another cold front move through….keeping track?? This will be a mostly dry front however, there should be just enough moisture for a widely scattered shower on Wednesday. Behind it, dry and seasonable weather will continue. 60s and 40s will be common. Looking very long range, the cool weather will round out October, MAYBE even colder towards Halloween.