Cold front is through the state this afternoon with temps finally leveling off in the 40s to low 50s.
Colder air will slowly shift south as it takes time for the shallow air masses to get over the Ozarks and Ouachitas. It will be a colder night overnight tonight with 30s seen in the north and 40s elsewhere. We may even see some patchy frost across the far north, especially if clouds break up overnight which is expected for at least a short time. The more frost prone areas will be more susceptible to it.
One more round of rainfall will be seen on Turesay as another disturbance rides through the southwest flow aloft. This will be a situation where the south is colder than the north. North will see mostly sunshine on Tuesday while the south will remain with clouds and rainfall. Therefore have highs warmer in the north wehr more sunshine is expected. Rainfall will move out Tuesday night as high pressure works in the drier air to the rest of the state, with sunny and dry weather seen through late week. Clouds will start to increase ahead of a new front on Thursday evening with rainfall chances increasing overnight. We will stay below average for the period.
Period will begin with a strong shortwave trough pushing through the Plains states. This will help to stretch out an upper low over the Southwest. This trough will help to merge the polar and subtropical jets over the region, rapidly increasing moisture across the state on Friday. An approaching cold front will help to aid in lift, further increasing the chances of rain across the state.
The chance of any thunderstorm activity looks low for now since we will be cool at the surface and temperature advection should be neutral with the strongest forcing arrives. Lapse rates will be limited but will be enough to support effective rainfall production on Friday. This will help to keep lift low, therefore not expecting enough growth to support thunderstorm development. Rainfall rates should remain under a half an inch. Temps will be cooler friday as a result.
By the weekend, high pressure will build in and strong subsidence will spread over the state, clearing out the skies and bringing dry air aloft over the state. This setup will continue through early next week keeping rain chances at bay and giving us a break in the rainfall department. Temps will remain below seasonal averages with 60s and 40s. A few 30s will be possible north but frost potential looks limited at this time. Will watch for this though as we get closer.